Last updated: 18 October 2026 Do markets really move more when the Fed announces a decision? We compared Treasury yields and the dollar on all 46 scheduled FOMC decision days from January 2021 to September 2026 with every other trading day, using Federal Reserve data.
The 2-year Treasury yield moved twice as much on Fed decision days. Across 46 scheduled FOMC decisions from January 2021 to September 2026, its median move was 6 basis points, against 3 bp on other trading days.
The dollar reacted more too. USD/JPY moved a median 0.69% from decision-day noon to the next day’s noon, against 0.30% on other days. EUR/USD moved 0.45% against 0.24%.
The 10-year yield barely noticed. Its median decision-day move was 4.5 bp, close to the 4.0 bp on other days. Long-term yields respond more to inflation and growth data than to a single meeting.
Big moves are rare but real. The 2-year yield moved 10 bp or more on 11 of the 46 decision days. The largest was a 27 bp fall on 13 December 2023. The next decision is 28 October 2026.
Decision days vs other days, 2021 to 2026
| Market | Median move on decision days | Median move on other days | Ratio | Biggest decision-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury yield | 6 bp | 3 bp | 2.0x | -27 bp on 13 Dec 2023 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.5 bp | 4 bp | 1.1x | -16 bp on 15 Jun 2022 |
| USD/JPY | 0.69% | 0.30% | 2.3x | -2.68% on 29 Jul 2026 |
| EUR/USD | 0.45% | 0.24% | 1.9x | +1.89% on 13 Dec 2023 |
Treasury moves are the change in the daily yield from the day before to the decision day. FX moves use the Fed’s noon New York rates, from noon on decision day to noon the next day, because the statement comes out at 2 p.m. Eastern. “Other days” is every other trading day in the same period.
The biggest 2-year yield moves on decision days
| Decision day | 2-year yield before | 2-year yield after | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2023 | 4.73% | 4.46% | -27 bp |
| 15 Jun 2022 | 3.45% | 3.20% | -25 bp |
| 22 Mar 2023 | 4.17% | 3.96% | -21 bp |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 4.05% | 4.20% | +15 bp |
| 4 May 2022 | 2.78% | 2.66% | -12 bp |
| 1 Feb 2023 | 4.21% | 4.09% | -12 bp |
| 1 Nov 2023 | 5.07% | 4.95% | -12 bp |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 3.47% | 3.59% | +12 bp |
Three of the four largest moves were falls (June 2022, March 2023 and December 2023). A move of this size is several times a normal day.
Upcoming decisions
| Meeting | Decision day | Quiet period |
|---|---|---|
| 27–28 October 2026 | Wednesday 28 October | 17–29 October |
| 8–9 December 2026 | Wednesday 9 December (with projections) | 28 November–10 December |
Fed officials stop giving public speeches about policy before each meeting. Our FOMC blackout calendar lists the quiet periods and how many speeches the Fed has made this year.
What this means for prop traders
Most prop firms list FOMC decisions as restricted news events, and some ban trading for a few minutes either side of 2 p.m. Eastern. Check your firm’s rule on our news trading calendar. For how decision days compare with CPI and jobs-report days, see CPI and jobs-report day market moves, and for whether your drawdown fits a normal day, see drawdown vs volatility.
Sources
- Meeting calendars, statements and minutes, Federal Reserve Board, accessed 18 October 2026.
- 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (DGS2) and 10-Year (DGS10), Federal Reserve Board H.15, via FRED, retrieved 18 October 2026.
- Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar (DEXJPUS) and U.S. Dollar to Euro (DEXUSEU), Federal Reserve Board H.10, via FRED, retrieved 18 October 2026.
Method
Decision days are the dates of the 46 scheduled FOMC policy statements from 27 January 2021 to 16 September 2026, taken from the Fed’s calendar. We left out the 22 August 2025 statement on longer-run goals, which was not a rate decision.
We use the size of each move, ignoring direction, and compare medians. Other days run from January 2021 to 16 October 2026.
Caveats
H.15 yields are end-of-day readings, so they include news after the statement, such as the press conference. They are not intraday highs and lows, which are often larger.
Some of the difference comes from other news landing in the same week. This is a description of the past, not a forecast.
How to cite this
Prop Data Lab, “FOMC Decision-Day Market Moves, 2021-2026”, updated 18 October 2026, https://propdatalab.com/fomc-decision-day-market-moves/
The table and the CSV are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: copy, chart or republish them, commercial use included, as long as you link back to this page. Data: Federal Reserve Board H.15 and H.10, via FRED.
Common questions
How much does the 2-year yield move on Fed days?
The median move on the 46 scheduled FOMC decision days from 2021 to 2026 was 6 basis points, twice the 3 bp median on other trading days.
What was the biggest Fed-day move since 2021?
The 2-year Treasury yield fell 27 basis points on 13 December 2023, from 4.73% to 4.46%, when the Fed's projections pointed to rate cuts in 2024.
When is the next FOMC decision?
Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by 9 December 2026.
Can I trade FOMC with a prop firm?
It depends on the firm. Many restrict trading around FOMC announcements or exclude profits made in that window. Check the firm's current rules before the day.