Last updated: 13 October 2026 Prop firms often limit trading around CPI and jobs-report releases. Do markets actually move more on those days? We matched every CPI and jobs-report release date since January 2022 against daily Federal Reserve data for the 10-year Treasury yield, EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
On CPI days since January 2022, the 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 5.5 basis points, against 4 on days with no CPI or jobs report. The average was 6.6 bp against 4.7 bp. (56 CPI days.)
Jobs-report days showed the bigger gap: a median 7 bp move against 4 bp across 57 releases.
In currencies, EUR/USD moved a median 0.40% on CPI days against 0.25% on other days; USD/JPY moved 0.52% on jobs-report days against 0.33%.
The largest CPI-day yield move in the sample was 30 bp on 10 Nov 2022, when October 2022 inflation came in lower than expected. Most release days are much quieter: half moved 5.5 bp or less.
Release days vs other days, January 2022 to October 2026
| Market | Release | Release days | Median move on release days | Median move on other days | Average, release days | Average, other days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | CPI | 56 | 5.5 bp | 4 bp | 6.6 bp | 4.7 bp |
| EUR/USD | CPI | 56 | 0.40% | 0.25% | 0.48% | 0.35% |
| USD/JPY | CPI | 56 | 0.41% | 0.33% | 0.60% | 0.46% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | Jobs report | 57 | 7 bp | 4 bp | 7.3 bp | 4.7 bp |
| EUR/USD | Jobs report | 57 | 0.38% | 0.25% | 0.46% | 0.35% |
| USD/JPY | Jobs report | 57 | 0.52% | 0.33% | 0.63% | 0.46% |
A basis point (bp) is one hundredth of a percentage point. Currency moves are the absolute percentage change in the Fed’s daily noon New York rate from the previous business day.
Biggest moves
| CPI day | 10-year yield move |
|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2022 | 30 bp |
| 10 Apr 2024 | 19 bp |
| 14 Nov 2023 | 19 bp |
| 13 Feb 2024 | 14 bp |
| 12 Jul 2023 | 13 bp |
| Jobs-report day | 10-year yield move |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2023 | 23 bp |
| 2 Aug 2024 | 19 bp |
| 2 Feb 2024 | 16 bp |
| 6 Jan 2023 | 16 bp |
| 4 Aug 2023 | 15 bp |
What this means for prop traders
Many prop firms restrict trading around high-impact news such as CPI and the jobs report. This data shows why the rule exists: daily moves on these days are larger on average. It also shows the effect is moderate on a typical day and concentrated in a few big surprises. Our news trading calendar lists each firm’s rule, and the news-day calendar feed has the upcoming release dates. The next CPI report is due Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
Sources
- FRED: DGS10, 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield (Federal Reserve H.15), read 13 October 2026.
- FRED: DEXUSEU and DEXJPUS, noon buying rates (Federal Reserve H.10).
- ALFRED vintage dates for CPIAUCSL and PAYEMS, used as release dates for CPI (BLS) and the Employment Situation report (BLS).
Method
Release dates are the vintage dates FRED records for the CPI and payrolls series. Where a month had two CPI vintages (February 2022, 2023 and 2024, when seasonal factors were revised a few days before the release), we kept the later date, the actual CPI release.
For each business day we took the absolute change from the previous business day’s value. “Other days” are all business days in the period that were neither a CPI nor a jobs-report release day. Data end on 8 Oct 2026 for the yield and 2 Oct 2026 for currencies.
Caveats
This is daily data. It cannot show the minutes after an 8:30 AM release, which is when prop firm news rules apply; intraday swings can be much larger and then partly reverse.
Release days are not the only thing happening. Other news, Fed speeches, auctions or other data on the same day can drive part of a move, and we have not controlled for them. The H.10 currency rates are taken at noon New York time, the yield at the end of the day.
These are past moves in three markets, not a forecast for any future release, and not trading advice.
How to cite this
Prop Data Lab, “CPI and Jobs-Report Day Market Moves”, updated 13 October 2026, https://propdatalab.com/cpi-jobs-report-day-market-moves/
The table and the CSV are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: copy, chart or republish them, commercial use included, as long as you link back to this page. Data from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Common questions
Do markets move more on CPI day?
Yes on average. Since 2022, the 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 5.5 bp on CPI days, against 4 bp on other days, using Federal Reserve daily data.
Which moves markets more, CPI or the jobs report?
In this sample the jobs report: a median 10-year yield move of 7 bp, against 5.5 bp on CPI days.
When is the next CPI release?
The September 2026 CPI report is scheduled for Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
Why do prop firms restrict news trading?
Prices can jump and spreads widen around major releases. Release days show larger daily moves on average in this data, though the biggest swings come from a handful of surprises.