Last updated: 17 October 2026 Do markets get jumpy around US elections? We measured how the VIX, the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar moved over election week in all 18 midterm and presidential elections from 1990 to 2024, using Federal Reserve and Cboe data from FRED.
The VIX fell over election week in 6 of 9 midterms since 1990, measured from Monday’s close to Wednesday’s. The biggest midterm drop was 2018, when it fell 3.60 points from 19.96 to 16.36. In 2022 it rose 1.74 points.
Presidential elections move markets more. The VIX fell 7.56 points in 2020 and 5.71 in 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 24 basis points after 2016 and fell 23 bp in 2008, against a typical Monday-to-Wednesday move of 5 bp.
Midterm moves are usually ordinary. The median midterm move in the 10-year yield was 6 bp either way, close to a normal week. The dollar fell against the euro in all 6 midterms since the euro started trading, by 0.01% to 0.91%.
The next test is 3 November 2026. Eighteen elections is a small sample, and the 1990s results come from very different markets, so treat this as context rather than a forecast.
Midterm elections, 1990 to 2022
| Election | VIX (points) | 10-year yield | USD/JPY | EUR/USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 1990 | +1.02 | +7 bp | +1.06% | — |
| 8 Nov 1994 | -0.95 | -11 bp | +0.56% | — |
| 3 Nov 1998 | +0.11 | +6 bp | +1.77% | — |
| 5 Nov 2002 | -0.09 | +2 bp | -0.20% | +0.21% |
| 7 Nov 2006 | -0.41 | -7 bp | -0.56% | +0.47% |
| 2 Nov 2010 | -2.27 | +1 bp | +0.93% | +0.91% |
| 4 Nov 2014 | -0.56 | 0 bp | +0.61% | +0.01% |
| 6 Nov 2018 | -3.60 | +2 bp | +0.09% | +0.57% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | +1.74 | -10 bp | -0.33% | +0.40% |
Change from the close on the Monday before the election to the close on the Wednesday after. Positive USD/JPY means the dollar rose against the yen; positive EUR/USD means the euro rose against the dollar. EUR/USD starts in 1999.
Presidential elections, 1992 to 2024
| Election | VIX (points) | 10-year yield | USD/JPY | EUR/USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 1992 | -0.39 | +1 bp | -0.93% | — |
| 5 Nov 1996 | -1.07 | -6 bp | +0.01% | — |
| 7 Nov 2000 | +1.14 | 0 bp | +0.21% | -0.29% |
| 2 Nov 2004 | -2.23 | -2 bp | -0.20% | +0.36% |
| 4 Nov 2008 | +0.88 | -23 bp | 0.00% | +2.52% |
| 6 Nov 2012 | +0.66 | -4 bp | -0.40% | -0.24% |
| 8 Nov 2016 | -4.33 | +24 bp | +0.23% | -0.78% |
| 3 Nov 2020 | -7.56 | -9 bp | -0.39% | +0.83% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | -5.71 | +11 bp | +1.68% | -1.40% |
What a normal week looks like
| Market | Median Monday-to-Wednesday move, other weeks 1990–2025 | Weeks counted |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 0.85 points | 1,687 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5 bp | 1,611 |
| USD/JPY | 0.50% | 1,613 |
| EUR/USD | 0.46% | 1,210 |
This is the median size of the move (up or down) across every other Monday-to-Wednesday stretch with data on both days. A midterm move of a few basis points or a fraction of a percent is within normal noise.
What this means if you trade in early November
Election night is Tuesday 3 November 2026, and the October jobs report is due Friday 6 November, so the week has two possible catalysts. Most prop firms don’t treat elections as restricted news events, but check your firm’s own rule on our news trading calendar. For how much markets move on CPI and jobs days, see CPI and jobs-report day moves; for whether a $2,000 drawdown survives a normal day, see drawdown vs volatility. Current VIX and rates are on our rates desk.
Sources
- CBOE Volatility Index: VIX (VIXCLS), Chicago Board Options Exchange, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 17 October 2026.
- Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10), Federal Reserve Board H.15, via FRED, 17 October 2026.
- Japanese Yen to U.S. Dollar (DEXJPUS) and U.S. Dollar to Euro (DEXUSEU), Federal Reserve Board H.10 noon buying rates, via FRED, 17 October 2026.
Method
For each election we take the last value on or before the Monday before election day and the first value on or after the Wednesday after it. VIX changes are in index points, the 10-year yield in basis points (0.01 percentage point), and FX in percent.
The normal-week baseline uses every other week from 1990 to 2025 with data on both the Monday and the Wednesday.
Caveats
Eighteen elections is a small sample, and other news (the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic) drove many of these moves.
FX rates are noon New York rates, not closes, so they capture part of the day after.
VIX data is owned by Cboe; we publish only the changes, not the index series.
How to cite this
Prop Data Lab, “Election-Week Market Moves Since 1990”, updated 17 October 2026, https://propdatalab.com/election-week-market-moves-vix-treasury-dollar/
The table and the CSV are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: copy, chart or republish them, commercial use included, as long as you link back to this page. VIX: Cboe, via FRED. Treasury and FX data: Federal Reserve Board, via FRED.
Common questions
Does the VIX go down after midterm elections?
In 6 of the 9 midterms from 1990 to 2022 the VIX was lower on the Wednesday after the election than on the Monday before. The median midterm change was -0.41 points.
How much did the 10-year yield move after the 2016 election?
It rose 24 basis points, from 1.83% on Monday 7 November 2016 to 2.07% on Wednesday 9 November, the biggest election-week rise in our data.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Tuesday 3 November 2026. The October jobs report follows on Friday 6 November.
Do prop firms restrict trading on election day?
Most prop firm news rules list scheduled data releases like CPI, NFP and FOMC rather than elections. Check your firm's rules; our news trading calendar compares them.